Week 7 Thoughts and Predictions

AFC EAST                                       Net Points
1. New York Jets 5-1                         58
2. New England Patriots 5-1           41
3. Miami Dolphins 3-3                    -24
4. Buffalo Bills 0-6                           -77
*Buffalo has allowed 30 or more points in 5 straight games. A franchise first.

*The Patriots are rolling and WR Deion Branch played better than Randy Moss had been thus far. No one seems to think they will slip anytime soon. Tom Brady and company seem to be on a mission to get that fourth ring and join the ranks of history’s truly great dynasties. They will have their hands full of course but they quickly overhauled their defense and are stocked with quickly improving young linebackers and defensive backs.

*The 5-1 Jets have Green Bay this week before traveling to Detroit and Cleveland. The consensus pick to reach the Super Bowl this year has done little to disappoint. They tasted success coming within a game last year and it will be fun to watch their Monday night showdown with the Patriots on Dec. 6^th. Most likely the game will go a long way in deciding who wins the division.

AFC NORTH                                   Net Points
1. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-1              55

2.  Baltimore Ravens 5-2               20
3. Cincinnati Bengals 2-4              -9
4. Cleveland Browns 2-5                                -24

*Bengals WR Terrell Owens is fourth in the league in receiving yards. All of the Bengals losses have been close and against good teams. They play in a rugged division where even the worst team is solid this season (Cleveland). They are certainly a solid team but like many others, have a brutal schedule coming up and at 2-4 it looks bleak. Left on the schedule are these playoff contenders: Dolphins, Steelers (twice), Colts, Jets, Saints, Chargers and Ravens. That’s 8 out of 10 games against top contenders.  

*The referee’s decision to give the ball back to Pittsburgh which helped their win over Miami was very bad. It was another absolutely ridiculous call in a season surprisingly full of them. There was of course that call that cost Detroit in week one, and that end-zone interception the Bills had against Baltimore last week just before the half was another example. It was called an incomplete pass because his foot landed on the guy’s leg instead of on the ground. Baltimore scored on the next play. The rules committee is going to have a busy offseason.

AFC SOUTH                                       Net Points
1. Tennessee Titans 5-2                                 82
2. Houston Texans 4-2                   -14
3. Indianapolis Colts 4-2                38
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-4           -79
*Look at Peyton Manning’s numbers through 6 games: a 67.3 completion percentage, 13 tds and 2 ints. He is the league’s only four-time MVP and playing his way into consideration for another despite injuries shaking up his receiving core. Remarkable.

*That 200-plus yards and 3 TD’s second-year WR Kenny Britt put up against Philadelphia with Kerry Collins starting, shows the Titans are capable of scoring with more than just Chris Johnson.  

AFC WEST                                          Net Points
1. Kansas City Chiefs 4-2                38
2. Oakland Raiders 3-4                   14

3. San Diego Chargers 2-5             28
4. Denver Broncos 2-5                    -61

*The Raiders scored more touchdowns against Denver (8), than the Carolina Panthers have all season (7). It's hard to tell if their 59-point explosion is an aberration or a sign of things to come. Oakland hasn’t had a competitive unit together since winning it all in 2002 and have generally been an undisciplined, underperforming bunch. One thing for certain is this team is beginning to form an identity under fiery coach Tom Cable and a surprisingly poised and now healthy Jason Campbell under center. They have an abundance of pure athleticism on both sides of the ball and if San Diego isn’t able to rebound in the next few weeks as they have in recent seasons, the Raiders can make this division a two team race with the Chiefs. Who would have thought just a month ago?

*The Chargers lead the league in offense and defense, and have outscored their opposition by four touchdowns, but are 2-5.

*The Chiefs did it again. They just keep winning. They lead the league in rushing by a whopping 30 yards per game, and Matt Cassell is starting to look like he may be worth some of that huge contract and it isn’t just a product of the Belicheck machine.

NFC EAST                                           Net Points
1.  New York Giants 5-2                  22
2. Washington Redskins 4-3        -3
3. Philadelphia Eagles 4-3            15
4. Dallas Cowboys 1-5                     -15

*The Eagles were beaten in all phases of the game against Tennessee, but there isn’t any reason to panic considering the Titans are really good and have won 10 straight against the NFC. Kevin Kolb didn’t play terrible and one of his three picks can be chalked up to the wind carrying it, but the switch back to the electrifying Michael Vick should certainly be a boost. The Eagles have a bye this week before taking on Indianapolis. The Michael Vick versus Peyton Manning show should be a great exhibition in contrasting QB play, a treat for football aficionados.  
* The Cowboys are 1-5 but could easily be 5-1. Consider that 4-2 Houston (whom they beat a few weeks ago), has a -14 point differential compared to Dallas’ -15. Dallas has really beaten themselves consistently. By now you’ve seen the stat showing that just one team in league history has made the playoffs following a 1-5 start.

*The Giants are starting to really gel. The team the country saw manhandle Dallas for much of the game Monday Night is perhaps the most explosive the Giants have ever assembled. Wide receiver hakim Nicks has quickly matured into a top flight performer and has the athleticism to be truly great. Fellow starting wideout Steve Smith made the Pro Bowl in his second season last year and both players had over 100 yards on Monday. I can’t ever recall a defense knocking five quarterbacks out of games as the G-Men have done this year. That front seven is starting to resemble the unit that ended the Patriots hopes of a perfect season in 2007.  

NFC NORTH                                      Net Points          
1. Chicago Bears 4-3                        12
2. Green Bay Packers 4-3               31
3. Minnesota Vikings 2-4               -5
4. Detroit Lions 1-5                          6

*Should Brett Favre play on a fractured ankle just to extend his unfathomable 291-game (315 including playoffs) streak, which dates back to 1992? Absolutely. Would a healthy Tarvaris Jackson be better suited to lead the team? Absolutely also. It now looks like Favre should have retired after his magical season a year ago, nobody would have blamed him and he is already a folk hero with streets named after him. The Vikings have something of a mess on their hands because his body has taken a real serious beating and is too old (41) to recover quickly. His limping away from the podium following the post game press conference had to be hard for Vikings personnel to watch. Favre, remember didn’t join the team until late in preseason and was coerced to play another season with a $20M contract after team reps retrieved him by jet from his farm in Mississippi.  

*Green Bay’s win over the Vikings needs to be put in perspective. Favre threw 3 int’s and still had the Vikings in position to win in the final seconds. They have OT losses to Washington and Miami. My preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year, they have the Jets, Cowboys, Vikings (again) and Atlanta coming up. They end the season @ New England, before hosting the Giants and Bears. Those are 7 very tough games coming up in their next 9. I would expect them to break .500 but will that be enough?  

NFC SOUTH                                       Net Points
1. Atlanta Falcons 5-2                     36
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2     -30
3. New Orleans Saints 4-3             9
4. Carolina Panthers 1-5                 -55
*The Saints are among the league leaders in offensive output. However, they have given up five touchdowns on defense and special teams in their last two losses.
*Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris said, following his team’s last second win over St. Louis, “We’re the best team in the NFC. Yeah I said it.” His Bucs are 4-2, with wins over the Browns (2-5), Panthers (1-5), Rams (3-4) and Bengals (2-4). Their losses were in blowout fashion to the Steelers and Saints. So we’ll see. Morris is 34 and their starting quarterback is 22 and already has 7 victories dating to last season, 5 coming in the final seconds.

*The Falcons rebounded nicely from a loss at Philadelphia a week ago to hold on for a hard fought win over a game Bengals bunch. The offense is finding its groove and the defense has proven to be solid but not spectacular. Defensive end Kroy Beirmann has really come on this season and by the year’s end should be well recognized. Many people now have the Falcons on the short list to make a run at the title out of the NFC. Of course, the win over New Orleans was huge, but the manner in which they did it (NO kicker missed a chip-shot FG in OT), suggests the Saints are still the team to beat.

NFC WEST                                          Net Points
1. Seattle Seahawks 4-2                  13           
2. Arizona Cardinals 3-3                 -62
3. St. Louis Rams 3-4                      -11
4. San Francisco 49ers 1-6             -49

*Seattle has a slim lead in the division but are an average team at best. The fact that they are 4-2 is as good an illustration as any, that the NFC is considerably weaker than the AFC. The Cardinals played another sloppy turnover-filled game and still could have won. The Rams honestly look like they can develop into the best team in the division, and aside from a blowout loss to Detroit, are playing the most consistently week in and week out. Their #1 overall pick in this years draft QB Sam Bradford, can only be expected to get better.   

WEEK 8 Matchups and Predictions

Buffalo (0-6) at Kansas City (4-2) My Pick: Kansas City

Jacksonville (3-4) at Dallas (1-5) My Pick: Dallas

Carolina (1-5) at St. Louis (3-4) My Pick: Carolina

Washington (4-3) at Detroit (1-5) My Pick: Washington

Miami (3-3) at Cincinnati (2-4) My Pick: Miami

Denver (2-5) at San Francisco (1-6) My Pick: San Francisco

Tennessee (5-2) at San Diego (2-5) My Pick: Tennessee

Tampa Bay (4-2) at Arizona (3-4) My Pick: Arizona

Minnesota (2-4) at New England (5-1) My Pick: New England

Seattle (4-2) at Oakland (3-4) My Pick: Oakland

----Games of the Week-------

Green Bay (4-2) at NY Jets (5-1) My Pick: NY Jets

Pittsburgh (5-1) at New Orleans (4-3)  (Sunday night) My Pick: Pittsburgh

Houston (4-2) at Indianapolis (4-2) (Monday Night) My Pick: Indianapolis

NFL Week 5

AFC EAST Power Rankings
1. New York Jets 4-1
2. New England Patriots 3-1
3. Miami Dolphins 2-2
4. Buffalo Bills 0-5

The Jets deservedly are the talk of the division at this point. True indeed that MNF showdown b/w the Jets and Vikings was a star-studded event with so many subplots from Favre vs. Jets, to Moss returning to the Viks, to Ladainian Tomlinson’s resurgence, Moss and Favre finally playing together etc. The sheer talent and athleticism on display had the look and feel of a Super Bowl match up. I kept thinking man for man, these are the two most talented teams in the league. Both teams’ rosters have been built in much the same fashion as a fantasy team on Madden. The most eye popping stat to come out of it has to be the Jets record-tying 4-game streak without a turnover. The Jets are certainly living up to the hype and the scary part is there is no evidence to support them sliding. Fresh into the starting rotations are LB Calvin Pace, WR Santonio Holmes and a rested CB Darrell Revis. Not to mention QB Matt Sanchez is looking very Phil Simms-esque and thus far has yet to throw a pick. At some point he is expected to have a down game but with perhaps the best O-line in the league, a stifling defense and a coaching staff devoted to a conservative quick-strike attack, the sky is the limit.
There is no way to convince most that New England upgraded with Moss’ departure, but they did re-acquire speedy WR Deion Branch from Seattle, and it will help keep defenses honest. Of course the saying is as long as Brady and Belicheck are together this team is a top contender, but the Pats have a tough road ahead in pursuit of a playoff spot this year. Consider over the next month they play host to Baltimore (10/17), Minnesota (10/31) and Indianapolis (11/21). In addition they have road games against San Diego (10/24) and Pittsburgh (11/14). All said, the Patriots will play 5 of the league’s toughest opponents in the next 6 weeks, and they figure to be underdogs vs. all but the Chargers. It will make or break their season.
The Dolphins are hard to figure here. They have Brandon Marshall and a two-headed running attack but the defense is solid, not overpowering. They are capable on any given Sunday of stopping some top offenses, but consistency is going to be key for the young squad. They have losses to NE and NY already, and a brutal six week stretch ahead playing the Packers, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Titans and Bears. Most assuredly come Nov. 21^st, either Miami or New England will be on the ropes in the AFC playoff picture.


AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens 4-1
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1
3. Cincinnati Bengals 2-3
4. Cleveland Browns 1-4

Well, Baltimore’s narrow defeat of Pittsburgh two weeks ago had most observers catapulting them to the top of their lists. Don’t forget this is essentially the same team that reached the AFC Championship two seasons ago with a pair of rookies at head coach and QB. Only the 2010 has considerably more offensive firepower as RB Ray Rice was then at Rutgers, and WR’s Anquan Boldin, Dante Stallworth and TJ Houshmandzadeh were lacing up in other NFL venues. Also remember that when they travel to New England this week, it will be a rematch of last years wild card game, which was easily the Patriots worst playoff performance in the Brady-Belichick era.
The T.Ocho show, as the new VH1 reality show is termed, is not particularly working in Cincinnati. Terrell Owens is playing his you know what off, but of course, it takes a 53-man effort to win in this league. Once again, in another year and for now his 5^th team, T.O. came out publicly questioning the Bengals offensive approach. Last season en route to capturing the AFC North title and returning to the playoffs for the first time in 4 seasons, the Bengals established themselves as a hard nosed team with gritty defense and a strong run game led by rejuvenated Cedric Benson. Of course for years prior they were an air it out team. They seem to be a bit of both at this point and in any case a clear strategically identity is crucial for a top contender. So far this season they rebounded nicely to an opening week loss to NE to defeat Baltimore in a really bruising game 15-10. Then they cruised to a win over winless Carolina before losing two really tight games to underdogs Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The have a bye this week but then it gets really tough as they play Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis in successive weeks, Man for man Cincinnati is really a good team. This next month will tell the story of how they match up with the league’s best.
Big Ben is back in Pittsburgh and it will be interesting to see how well he performs as it will be his first real game action since last December.

AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans 3-2
2. Indianapolis Colts 3-2
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-2
4. Tennessee Titans 3-2

Whoever wins the Jags-Texans game will be in sole possession of first place. The Jags are playing way beyond anyone’s expectations. I mean, some radio show hosts had them pegged as one of the worst teams in the league the last time I did this post two short weeks ago. Since then they defeated Indy and came back hard to win against a game Buffalo unit. People are saying the Colts don’t look as dominant but the fact is Peyton Manning is having his best season to date. That says a lot considering he is the league’s only 4-time MVP. He still has weapons in the passing game and the team showed against KC that the run game can get gritty if need be with Michigan alum Mike Hart. The defense isn’t especially good against the run but conventional wisdom suggest that since it never really was anyway so what’s the concern? The Colts are in the midst of an unprecedented streak having won at least 12 games in 7 straight seasons. The defending AFC Champs (who remember could and should have finished 16-0 last season) have a young secondary that even without oft-injured S Bob Sanders, plays smart and agile. They also still have the speediest set of DE’s in perhaps NFL history in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Don’t count on Indianapolis casually letting the division crown go just yet; though with everyone in the division over .500 after 5 weeks, they have a considerably tougher task than most expected. .


AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs 3-1
2. San Diego Chargers 2-3
3. Denver Broncos 2-3
4. Oakland Raiders 2-3

KC’s strong effort in Indianapolis proves to me they are a serious contender. Granted, the season is still young, but there is no denying the Chiefs impressive cluster of young athleticism. They passed a huge psychological hurdle in handling San Diego in week 1 and clearly they are playing like they believe they belong with the elite. You can see they are playing with swag and confidence. Not to mention they have a very formidable 1-2 punch with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, a combo of runners perhaps unmatched in the league. That alone figures to make them competitive week in and week out.
The Chargers have quietly put up the most points and yardage in the league thus far. Though their record is currently below .500, remember they lost in the final minute in two of those, most recently against Oakland; a team they consistently dominate and had all the motivation on their side.
The Chargers figure to right the ship as they have in years past, most notably two seasons ago when they rebounded from a 4-8 start to finish 8-8, which was good enough to win the division. They carried that momentum all the way to the AFC championship. I have seen nothing to suggest they won’t be right there in the end this season as well. San Diego five weeks in is still the favorite
Not so much for Oakland or Denver. The Broncos are solid but not elite in any way, particularly with their run-by-committee backfield. To date, QB Kyle Orton has played the best football of his career, as has WR Brandon Lloyd. They just don’t have enough talent to contend down the stretch in a loaded conference.


NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles 3-2
2. Washington Redskins 3-2
3. New York Giants 3-2
4. Dallas Cowboys 1-3

Washington has a veteran core. They are really an old team in many ways. They have a lot of been there, done that to them, with the likes of QB Donovan McNabb (11^th season), LB London Fletcher (12^th); WR Joey Galloway (15^th), D. Linemen Phillip Daniels (14^th) and Vonnie Holliday (12^th), and slow, over the hill RB’s Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson. Even their FB Mike Sellers is a 10 year vet. Beyond that, deep threat WR Santana Moss is in his 9^th year as is DE/LB Andre Carter. Cornerback Phillip Buchanon is in his 8^th year along with DT’s Albert Haynesworth and Ma’ake Kemoeatu. The owner Daniel Snyder has a reputation as a big free agency spender, and in the last decade has created a culture of thrown together units. They have young talent also of course but there is something to be said for chemistry, growing together through struggles and developing unity (Patriots/Colts/Steelers?). This is truly a do or die situation. They could possibly come together as a unit and do something magical. Cornerback DeAngelo Hall said the right things in the press conference after their win over Green Bay (their second OT win of the season), about the team defying doubters. You like to see and hear that competitive fire. The thing about it is the season is 16 weeks long. They have a squad of castoffs really, and keeping that energy through a 16-game season appears to be a daunting task.
For the sake of brevity I will say that the Giants are back. They dusted off Chicago, Tennessee and Houston in successive weeks. They appear to be the strongest, most situated team in the NFC East. Remember the team that stopped the Patriots undefeated season? They are for the most part still together. This group of young Giant receivers is developing into the best in their franchises’ illustrious history. Really. Watch out for the G-men. If Dallas loses this week to Minnesota (the team that knocked them out of last years playoffs in humiliating fashion), which I believe they will, heads will roll come seasons end because 1-4 is too big a whole for them to climb out of and reach the playoffs given their schedule.

NFC NORTH
1. Chicago Bears 4-1
2. Green Bay Packers 3-2
3. Minnesota Vikings 1-3
4. Detroit Lions 1-4

The Bears came crashing to earth last week in the form of a 9-sack beat down at the hands of the Giants. Its not time to write them off of course, but that week one bad call that negated a late Detroit score looms large. This is a strange season, unusual in that any number of perhaps a dozen teams have been tagged as potential champs. Chicago (believe it or not) was tagged as one of those teams. I feel they should have lost to Detroit and QB Jay Cutler is overrated. They just beat a winless Carolina squad to go to 4-1 and they should be favored against Seattle this week. The week after that they host Minnesota, then travel to Buffalo Nov. 7^th. So looking at the schedule Chicago could/should very well be 6-2 by midseason.
But check their second half schedule: at Dolphins, Eagles, at (revenge-minded) Lions, Patriots, at Vikings on MNF, Jets, and they end the season at Green Bay. The way I see it they can go 3-5 in the second half and make the playoffs in a comparatively weaker NFC. However it develops, the best case scenario is an early playoff exit.
The Lions are showing so much heart that I honestly respect them as a good football team. They should be 2-3 and their 44-6 win over the lowly Rams emphatically illustrates how far they have came in a short time. Remember they won just 3 games the last two seasons. Very similar to the Chiefs in terms of youth and athleticism, I’m not expecting many more wins this year, but they will be the ultimate spoiler down the stretch.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons 4-1
2. New Orleans Saints 3-2
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1
4. Carolina Panthers 0-3

The Falcons franchise began in 1966 and until last season had never put together back-to-back winning seasons. They are off to a great this season after impressive wins over Arizona (41-7), and a squeaker over defending champ New Orleans. Their wins over winless San Francisco and one-win Cleveland the last two weeks were by no means easy, and the game winning interception return by DE Kroy Biermann was exactly the kind of play top teams are supposed to make in crunch time.
The Saints are struggling offensively against everyone. No one saw their loss to Arizona coming, and its hard to recall another game in which the winner put up 30 points despite scoring just one offensive touchdown. The Saints stand at 3-2, but would be 4-1 were it not for that chip shot missed FG vs. Atlanta. The mistakes they have made seem easy to correct, but year after we see the defending Super Bowl fail to live up to expectations.
Tampa Bay apparently has a team full of gamers. No one saw them defeating Cincinnati. The poise they displayed down the stretch in the fourth quarter will be a defining moment should this team continue to excel and end up actually competing for a playoff spot; which still no one is anticipating. Still, they have played really well, opened some eyes and appear headed in a great direction as a franchise with QB Josh Freeman under center.

NFC WEST
1. Arizona Cardinals 3-2
2. Seattle Seahawks 2-2
3. St. Louis Rams 2-3
4. San Francisco 49ers 0-5

Two weeks ago I was really firm in my belief that the Cardinals had returned to the bottom half of the league and were for the most part finished as a contender. They had just been destroyed by Atlanta 41-7 and narrowly defeated (24-23) seemingly lowly Oakland, and QB Derek Anderson took most of the blame. Then they were crushed again 41-10 by San Diego. Hence, it was easy to have this take on a franchise who really has had just one ten win season in 30 years. They limped out of weak NFC West into the playoffs at 9-7 before catching fire, during their Super Bowl run of 2008. The thing is once you reach a Super Bowl, the respect you earn last for a couple seasons. That said, they held off some nonbelievers (myself included), with a spectacular defensive effort to defeat defending Champion New Orleans last week. Free agent rookie QB Max Hall did nothing particularly impressive, but they still won. To me that speaks volumes about the makeup and resolve of this roster and staff. They have Seattle and Tampa Bay up next, two teams in similar limbo, struggling to establish themselves as contenders. Arizona is actually second to last in points thus far, so it will be interesting to see if they can find some offensive consistency because you can’t expect to get three Tds every week from defense and special teams.
Seattle ranks near the bottom of nearly every statistical category and before their byte last week were smashed 20-3 by the Rams, a truly no-name team in the midst of a major overhaul. The Rams lost 44-6 to Detroit last week, so now Seattle’s loss looks even worse. They just traded for Buffalo castoff RB Marshawn Lynch to join Justin Forsett in the backfield. So Head coach Pete Carroll has two University of California products to tote the rock. Aging QB Matt Hasselbeck is the team’s second leading rusher with 33 yards so the Lynch acquisition can’t help but be an improvement.
The Seahawks in recent years have acquired and since let go a pretty decent fantasy team worth of WR’s when you consider Nate Burleson, TJ Houshmandzadeh and most recently Deion Branch didn’t work out there. The have a good defense on paper but little else at this point.
San Francisco has to be the best 0-5 team I have ever seen. They have played hard in narrow defeats against Philadelphia, New Orleans and Atlanta, prompting team brass to declare coach Mike Singletary’s job safe. it’s a good thing because they have a strong nucleus on both sides of the ball. I do think QB Alex Smith is a clear bust as a former #1 pick unfortunately.