Week 7 Thoughts and Predictions

AFC EAST                                       Net Points
1. New York Jets 5-1                         58
2. New England Patriots 5-1           41
3. Miami Dolphins 3-3                    -24
4. Buffalo Bills 0-6                           -77
*Buffalo has allowed 30 or more points in 5 straight games. A franchise first.

*The Patriots are rolling and WR Deion Branch played better than Randy Moss had been thus far. No one seems to think they will slip anytime soon. Tom Brady and company seem to be on a mission to get that fourth ring and join the ranks of history’s truly great dynasties. They will have their hands full of course but they quickly overhauled their defense and are stocked with quickly improving young linebackers and defensive backs.

*The 5-1 Jets have Green Bay this week before traveling to Detroit and Cleveland. The consensus pick to reach the Super Bowl this year has done little to disappoint. They tasted success coming within a game last year and it will be fun to watch their Monday night showdown with the Patriots on Dec. 6^th. Most likely the game will go a long way in deciding who wins the division.

AFC NORTH                                   Net Points
1. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-1              55

2.  Baltimore Ravens 5-2               20
3. Cincinnati Bengals 2-4              -9
4. Cleveland Browns 2-5                                -24

*Bengals WR Terrell Owens is fourth in the league in receiving yards. All of the Bengals losses have been close and against good teams. They play in a rugged division where even the worst team is solid this season (Cleveland). They are certainly a solid team but like many others, have a brutal schedule coming up and at 2-4 it looks bleak. Left on the schedule are these playoff contenders: Dolphins, Steelers (twice), Colts, Jets, Saints, Chargers and Ravens. That’s 8 out of 10 games against top contenders.  

*The referee’s decision to give the ball back to Pittsburgh which helped their win over Miami was very bad. It was another absolutely ridiculous call in a season surprisingly full of them. There was of course that call that cost Detroit in week one, and that end-zone interception the Bills had against Baltimore last week just before the half was another example. It was called an incomplete pass because his foot landed on the guy’s leg instead of on the ground. Baltimore scored on the next play. The rules committee is going to have a busy offseason.

AFC SOUTH                                       Net Points
1. Tennessee Titans 5-2                                 82
2. Houston Texans 4-2                   -14
3. Indianapolis Colts 4-2                38
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-4           -79
*Look at Peyton Manning’s numbers through 6 games: a 67.3 completion percentage, 13 tds and 2 ints. He is the league’s only four-time MVP and playing his way into consideration for another despite injuries shaking up his receiving core. Remarkable.

*That 200-plus yards and 3 TD’s second-year WR Kenny Britt put up against Philadelphia with Kerry Collins starting, shows the Titans are capable of scoring with more than just Chris Johnson.  

AFC WEST                                          Net Points
1. Kansas City Chiefs 4-2                38
2. Oakland Raiders 3-4                   14

3. San Diego Chargers 2-5             28
4. Denver Broncos 2-5                    -61

*The Raiders scored more touchdowns against Denver (8), than the Carolina Panthers have all season (7). It's hard to tell if their 59-point explosion is an aberration or a sign of things to come. Oakland hasn’t had a competitive unit together since winning it all in 2002 and have generally been an undisciplined, underperforming bunch. One thing for certain is this team is beginning to form an identity under fiery coach Tom Cable and a surprisingly poised and now healthy Jason Campbell under center. They have an abundance of pure athleticism on both sides of the ball and if San Diego isn’t able to rebound in the next few weeks as they have in recent seasons, the Raiders can make this division a two team race with the Chiefs. Who would have thought just a month ago?

*The Chargers lead the league in offense and defense, and have outscored their opposition by four touchdowns, but are 2-5.

*The Chiefs did it again. They just keep winning. They lead the league in rushing by a whopping 30 yards per game, and Matt Cassell is starting to look like he may be worth some of that huge contract and it isn’t just a product of the Belicheck machine.

NFC EAST                                           Net Points
1.  New York Giants 5-2                  22
2. Washington Redskins 4-3        -3
3. Philadelphia Eagles 4-3            15
4. Dallas Cowboys 1-5                     -15

*The Eagles were beaten in all phases of the game against Tennessee, but there isn’t any reason to panic considering the Titans are really good and have won 10 straight against the NFC. Kevin Kolb didn’t play terrible and one of his three picks can be chalked up to the wind carrying it, but the switch back to the electrifying Michael Vick should certainly be a boost. The Eagles have a bye this week before taking on Indianapolis. The Michael Vick versus Peyton Manning show should be a great exhibition in contrasting QB play, a treat for football aficionados.  
* The Cowboys are 1-5 but could easily be 5-1. Consider that 4-2 Houston (whom they beat a few weeks ago), has a -14 point differential compared to Dallas’ -15. Dallas has really beaten themselves consistently. By now you’ve seen the stat showing that just one team in league history has made the playoffs following a 1-5 start.

*The Giants are starting to really gel. The team the country saw manhandle Dallas for much of the game Monday Night is perhaps the most explosive the Giants have ever assembled. Wide receiver hakim Nicks has quickly matured into a top flight performer and has the athleticism to be truly great. Fellow starting wideout Steve Smith made the Pro Bowl in his second season last year and both players had over 100 yards on Monday. I can’t ever recall a defense knocking five quarterbacks out of games as the G-Men have done this year. That front seven is starting to resemble the unit that ended the Patriots hopes of a perfect season in 2007.  

NFC NORTH                                      Net Points          
1. Chicago Bears 4-3                        12
2. Green Bay Packers 4-3               31
3. Minnesota Vikings 2-4               -5
4. Detroit Lions 1-5                          6

*Should Brett Favre play on a fractured ankle just to extend his unfathomable 291-game (315 including playoffs) streak, which dates back to 1992? Absolutely. Would a healthy Tarvaris Jackson be better suited to lead the team? Absolutely also. It now looks like Favre should have retired after his magical season a year ago, nobody would have blamed him and he is already a folk hero with streets named after him. The Vikings have something of a mess on their hands because his body has taken a real serious beating and is too old (41) to recover quickly. His limping away from the podium following the post game press conference had to be hard for Vikings personnel to watch. Favre, remember didn’t join the team until late in preseason and was coerced to play another season with a $20M contract after team reps retrieved him by jet from his farm in Mississippi.  

*Green Bay’s win over the Vikings needs to be put in perspective. Favre threw 3 int’s and still had the Vikings in position to win in the final seconds. They have OT losses to Washington and Miami. My preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year, they have the Jets, Cowboys, Vikings (again) and Atlanta coming up. They end the season @ New England, before hosting the Giants and Bears. Those are 7 very tough games coming up in their next 9. I would expect them to break .500 but will that be enough?  

NFC SOUTH                                       Net Points
1. Atlanta Falcons 5-2                     36
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-2     -30
3. New Orleans Saints 4-3             9
4. Carolina Panthers 1-5                 -55
*The Saints are among the league leaders in offensive output. However, they have given up five touchdowns on defense and special teams in their last two losses.
*Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris said, following his team’s last second win over St. Louis, “We’re the best team in the NFC. Yeah I said it.” His Bucs are 4-2, with wins over the Browns (2-5), Panthers (1-5), Rams (3-4) and Bengals (2-4). Their losses were in blowout fashion to the Steelers and Saints. So we’ll see. Morris is 34 and their starting quarterback is 22 and already has 7 victories dating to last season, 5 coming in the final seconds.

*The Falcons rebounded nicely from a loss at Philadelphia a week ago to hold on for a hard fought win over a game Bengals bunch. The offense is finding its groove and the defense has proven to be solid but not spectacular. Defensive end Kroy Beirmann has really come on this season and by the year’s end should be well recognized. Many people now have the Falcons on the short list to make a run at the title out of the NFC. Of course, the win over New Orleans was huge, but the manner in which they did it (NO kicker missed a chip-shot FG in OT), suggests the Saints are still the team to beat.

NFC WEST                                          Net Points
1. Seattle Seahawks 4-2                  13           
2. Arizona Cardinals 3-3                 -62
3. St. Louis Rams 3-4                      -11
4. San Francisco 49ers 1-6             -49

*Seattle has a slim lead in the division but are an average team at best. The fact that they are 4-2 is as good an illustration as any, that the NFC is considerably weaker than the AFC. The Cardinals played another sloppy turnover-filled game and still could have won. The Rams honestly look like they can develop into the best team in the division, and aside from a blowout loss to Detroit, are playing the most consistently week in and week out. Their #1 overall pick in this years draft QB Sam Bradford, can only be expected to get better.   

WEEK 8 Matchups and Predictions

Buffalo (0-6) at Kansas City (4-2) My Pick: Kansas City

Jacksonville (3-4) at Dallas (1-5) My Pick: Dallas

Carolina (1-5) at St. Louis (3-4) My Pick: Carolina

Washington (4-3) at Detroit (1-5) My Pick: Washington

Miami (3-3) at Cincinnati (2-4) My Pick: Miami

Denver (2-5) at San Francisco (1-6) My Pick: San Francisco

Tennessee (5-2) at San Diego (2-5) My Pick: Tennessee

Tampa Bay (4-2) at Arizona (3-4) My Pick: Arizona

Minnesota (2-4) at New England (5-1) My Pick: New England

Seattle (4-2) at Oakland (3-4) My Pick: Oakland

----Games of the Week-------

Green Bay (4-2) at NY Jets (5-1) My Pick: NY Jets

Pittsburgh (5-1) at New Orleans (4-3)  (Sunday night) My Pick: Pittsburgh

Houston (4-2) at Indianapolis (4-2) (Monday Night) My Pick: Indianapolis