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Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Buffalo Bills 2015: 5 Questions Heading Into Training Camp

The Buffalo Bills have the most pressing questions surrounding them this season; facing the prospect of stretching their playoff drought to 16 years.


How quickly will Coach Ryan make an impact?

Blue collar gritty town, blue collar eccentric coach... seems like a really great match going into the season. Can Ryan's tough quirky demeanor find favor in a locker room full of fresh faces?
Remember that out the gate, Ryan brought two Jets teams to the AFC championship, led by Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene his main weapons. His defenses drew comparison to those who played under his father in Philadelphia and Chicago a generation ago. Frankly, Ryan led squads have been the only opposition to New England during their historic 15-year run of AFC East and NFL dominance, even knocking them out of the playoffs one year. Now, Ryan has arguably his most talented team to date, on both sides of the ball. He becomes Buffalo's 7th coach since 2000.

Is this they year they make the playoffs?
                                Franchise hero Jim Kelly tells team, "Get the Bills back in the playoffs"

After making the playoffs 10 out of 12 seasons from '88-99, the Bills remain in a historic drought, 15 years and counting. Winning 9 games last season has many believing the franchise to be on the upswing. A 3rd ranked defense a year ago led to Buffalo's first winning season since narrowly missing the playoffs in 2004. I attended the season finale then at Ralph Wilson Stadium, as the Bills lost convincingly to a 14-1 Steelers team that sat its starters (including unbeaten rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger).

The Bills' 2014 season was different, highlighted by a late season run that included an impressive gritty home win over Green Bay and against mighty New England in week 17. An off season of eye brow raising signings on offense undoubtedly has the Buffalo faithful thinking big. New owner Terry Pegula is a fan favorite in the area. There are obvious big shoes to fill following the passing of iconic team founder Ralph Wilson. It can be said that Buffalo surprised some people last season, but with some "experts" arguing the Bills are a top 10 contender, it is doubtful they will sneak up on anyone this season. The AFC is as strong as it has been in years and the AFC as a whole may be improved. The biggest question mark the team faces this season is undoubtedly quarterback play; largely expect to be among the league's worst. Stay tuned.

          BILLS RECORD the last 15 seasons
2014: 9-7 
2012-2013: 6-10
2011: 6-10
2010: 4-12
2009: 6-10
2006-2008: 7-9
2005: 5-11 
2004: 9-7
2003: 6-10
2002: 8-8
2001: 3-13
2000: 8-8

Will the numerous free agent acquisitions on offense pay off?


Mccoy joining the Bills is huge of course, as it is rare that a top offensive free agent lands
in Buffalo. When was the last time a high profile skill position player went to western NY?
Think Drew Bledsoe in 2003.

McCoy joins a long list of really productive Bills RB's over the last decade (Marshawn Lynch, Willis McGahee, Travis Henry). Out is the explosive but inconsistent and injury prone CJ Spiller.
Perhaps the opposite of flashy, the always steady Fred Jackson returns for his 10th season, a rarity for an NFL running back. Quietly, he actually has moved up the Bills all time rushing ranks and now only trails legends OJ Simpson and Thurman Thomas. The league's oldest back a third straight year, it's easy to imagine a scenario in which Jackson excels in a limited role behind the explosive McCoy. 

        RB Fred Jackson returns for a 10th season in 2015. He ranks third in team history in carries, yards and Tds 

The passing game gets a tremendous boost as well with the addition of FB turned TE Charles Clay. Blue collar and durable, it'll be interesting to see how he is utilized in a Bills system which traditionally has had tall plodding blocking TE types. Interestingly, Dustin Keller put up similar numbers in NY under Coach Ryan, as Clay has the past two seasons in Miami. It's not a stretch to think Clay can have the most productive overall season by a TE in team history. Pete Metzelaars' 1993 season (69 rec, 609 yards, 4tds) currently holds that distinction, while the departing Scott Chandler had the most yards with 655 yards in 2013. Clay could be a receiving threat out of the backfield ala Tom Rathman also so look for that. Larry Centers comes to mind when thinking what an ideal season from Clay could look like statistically.
Will Percy Harvin be lining up in the slot or out wide opposite Sammy Watkins? A super interesting and potentially great combination, how and if these two can stay healthy major question marks. Can Harvin having burned out his welcome quickly with two teams already, mesh with the personality that Ryan offers? Hmmm. It could decide how the offense gels.

Guard Richie Incognito made headlines a few seasons ago in the wrong way. However his addition to the Bills team could actually be of as much significance as any skill player. He brings a tenacity and veteran toughness that will certainly be welcomed in western New York. 

Who will man the offense?
                                      From l. to r.; QBs Jeff Tuel, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Cassel & EJ Manuel 

With the offense fully loaded, it ultimately will come down to line play, and how well EJ Manuel progresses. I don't think anyone is viewing a Matt Cassel-led attack as ideal, as he comes to Buffalo as the latest in the long line of journey men QBs and disappointing draft picks in Western, NY.
It is believed Manuel will be given every opportunity to take the leading role, but recent history (his and the franchise's)
suggest Cassel will likely win out. He is in the mold of solid, heady QB's Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Orton who over the last five seasons have been the lone highlights in a revolving door for signal callers there.
Given the pieces in place, it is likely the offense may be in better hands under the likes of Cassel, in terms of game management and minimizing mistakes. He is tough and has been fairly durable but is by no means considered elite. Remember Ryan almost two Super Bowls with Mark Sanchez, so hey, you never know. The super athletic project Tyrod Taylor and inexperience Matt Simms round out the depth chart for now.


Will the Bills defense remain elite?
All-time great front four? l. to r.: Hughes, K. Williams, Dareus and M. Williams have combined for a whopping 80.5 sacks the last two seasons.




Heading into the season, it is hard to imagine this unit taking a step back following back to back seasons of dominant play. The front four are all pro bowlers and all made the NFL's top 100 players list. Ends Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes for a combined 47 sacks the last two seasons. That is an eye popping amount period, yet even more impressive considering tackles Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams have tallied 33.5 sacks from the interior!
That's 80.5 sacks from four players, over two seasons. Right.
Backing up the line is an unheralded group of backers that are even more nameless given the departure of Kiko Alonzo. Youngsters Nigel Bradham and Preston Brown remain relative unknowns who played admirably to many observers last season. Manny Lawson is a veteran combo end/backer who figures to rotate prominently again.
In the secondary, keep a watch on starting CB and 8 yr Leodis McKelvin who ended 2014 on IR. Stephen Gilmore has been really good his first three seasons and is described as an aggressive hitter, and disciplined cover man. Duke Williams and Aaron Williams are back as the starting safeties. Both are athletic and solid tacklers, while Duke has just one pick in two seasons; Aaron Williams had four picks two seasons ago, proving he an be a playmaker.

Its also hard to see the Bills defense improving on their performance of the past two seasons, but something similar may be enough to get them to the playoffs this season. A lot will depend on the further development of a young secondary and linebacking core. 

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